Data Desk · AAPL live tape + 10-K
The market is writing a novel. DCF is still doing arithmetic.
Apple prints at $313.45. The 10-K is still a hardware company learning to be a services one. A textbook discounted-cash-flow model, fed the same 10-K, lands near $208.71.
Apple
Last print$313.45
+1.1% session · 5Y from $312.41
- Open
- $312.41
- High
- $316.83
- Low
- $302.25
- CAGR
- +6.2%
- Ann. vol
- +8%
- Max drawdown
- -3.5%
- Mkt cap
- $4.57T
- P/E
- 36.1
- 52-week
- $224.69 – $344.57
- Sharpe (proxy)
- 0.77
- Window
- 5Y
- DCF gap
- -33.4%
Implied DCF
$208.71
-33.4% vs tape
Street case
$160.32
-48.9% vs tape
MC median
$206.67
95.5% of paths below market
GBM year-5 median
$1,079.85
blend · annual μ + live realized σ
Fairly valued to moderately overvalued — if you believe cash. The tape is pricing the compounder the DCF refuses to fully capitalize.
AAPL live $313.45 · DCF $208.71 · Services is the mix that compounds. Ask Grok, or type use MSFT in the terminal.
AAPL revenue mix
Apple: Services through the stack
Services climbing through iPhone. Eight fiscal years of mix, not a slogan.
FY2025 · Services 26.2% · 416B total.
Hardware
Latest year
$307B
4.3% vs prior year
Eight-year total
$2177B
iPhone, Mac, iPad, Watch — the installed base.
- iPhone50% · $208B
- Mac8% · $33B
- iPad6% · $27B
Services
Latest year
$109B
12.9% vs prior year
Eight-year total
$574B
The series that compounds.
- FY2018 mix14.0%
- FY2025 mix26.2%
- FY25 dollars$109B
Monte Carlo
AAPL · eight thousand shocks to the DCF
1.7%
$305.21–$322.15
$305.21–$322.15
1.7% of paths
CDF 96.2%
Green dashed is the median. Red dashed is the live tape. Drag across bins to read P(range).
GBM finish table
Where the AAPL GBM finishes
Each cell is the share of simulated paths that finish a given year inside that price band.
| Horizon | $50–150 | $150–250 | $250–350 | $350–450 | $450–650 | $650–∞ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | ||||||
| Year 2 | ||||||
| Year 3 | ||||||
| Year 4 | ||||||
| Year 5 |
The lab
Open a module
Live tape
Open quotes, reverse DCF, and a reading that refreshes itself.
The print
FY earnings board. 10-K tiles, live multiple, d3 streamgraph.
Terminal
Command the same engines. awk, tables, scripts on this device.
Operating deck
Mix, cash, funnel, treemap, Sankey — live mega-cap metrics.
DCF engine
Five-year cash build, terminal value, equity bridge.
Monte Carlo
Shock WACC, growth, margins — 5k to 50k paths.
Stochastic paths
GBM, jump-diffusion, and the fat left tail.
Sensitivity
WACC × terminal growth grid versus the tape.
ML forecast
Tiny-sample ensembles. Honest about the n=8 problem.
History
FY2018–FY2025: the mix shift in full.
Risk
VaR, CVaR, correlation, Bayesian revenue bands.