Module 02 · AAPL Monte Carlo

Four knobs, ten thousand rolls on Apple.

Each path redraws WACC, terminal growth, revenue growth and EBIT margin around the Apple case, then reruns the DCF.

Mean

$217.18

Median

$206.84

$155.03

Very bear

P25

$182.64

P75

$241.06

P95

$309.39

Very bull

95.5% of 10,000 paths price below the AAPL $313.45 tape. Shocks: WACC ±1.0%, TGR ±0.5%, growth ±2.5%, margin ±1.5%.

Monte Carlo

1.6%

$305.21–$322.15

1.6% of paths

CDF 96.1%

Green dashed is the median. Red dashed is the live tape. Drag across bins to read P(range).

At $447.25 the model sits at the 99.6% percentile.

The original model’s 10,000-path print — a cross-check, not a live rerun.