Module 05 · AAPL ensemble
Eight Apple points. Three curves. One honest caveat.
FY2018–FY2025, then rebased so the path starts at the live tape rather than last year’s print. n = 8 is the whole dataset.
Revenue R² (lin)
0.85
EPS R² (lin)
0.88
Price R² (lin)
0.91
CY2029 ensemble
$525.23
+56.0% vs tape
Model 1
AAPL revenue — live fit vs DCF
Model 2
Gross margin vs Services mix
Model 3
EPS and the implied P/E at the live ensemble
Model 4
Price ensemble — time 30% · revenue 35% · EPS 35% · live rebase
Composite signal
| Method | Price | vs tape | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCF — active case | $208.71 | -38.0% | Below |
| DCF — street | $160.32 | -52.4% | Below |
| ML ensemble CY2025 | $344.44 | +2.3% | Near |
| ML ensemble CY2026 | $382.55 | +13.6% | Above |
| ML ensemble CY2029 | $525.23 | +56.0% | Above |
| Market tape | $336.64 | — | — |
Historical last print $285.90 in FY2025 versus the $336.64 live tape — rebase k = 1.1775. Workbook CY2029 $571.00 is shown on the chart as a reference, not as a live input.