Module 01 · AAPL discounted cash flow
A five-year cash machine, then a perpetuity.
Apple revenue slides into EBIT, NOPAT, unlevered free cash flow. Terminal value is Gordon growth. The implied price is what remains after cash and debt.
Implied price
$208.71
-33.4% vs market
Enterprise value
$2.99T
FY2029E revenue
$676B
TV share of EV
78.5%
Most of the value is the tail
P&L and FCF build
| Line | FY2025E | FY2026E | FY2027E | FY2028E | FY2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $504B | $550B | $594B | $635B | $676B |
| Growth | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| EBIT | $169B | $184B | $199B | $213B | $227B |
| EBIT margin | 33.5% | 33.5% | 33.5% | 33.5% | 33.5% |
| NOPAT | $142B | $154B | $167B | $178B | $190B |
| UFCF | $143B | $155B | $168B | $180B | $191B |
| PV of FCF | $131B | $131B | $130B | $127B | $124B |
Projection
Revenue vs EBIT
Cash
Unlevered FCF and its present value
Margins
EBIT margin through the explicit period
Equity bridge
How cash becomes a share price
Three readings of the same machine
Active case
$208.71
-33.4%
Street consensus
$160.32
-48.9%
Midpoint
$184.52
-41.1%